Go Partway!
Posted: June 21, 2010 Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: Base Running, Tangotiger, Uncategorized 17 Comments »Scenario: You are the runner on 2nd base and there is 1 out. The score is 3 to 3 and it is the 4th inning. A fly ball is hit to right center field and the right fielder will attempt to catch the ball. As a runner you have average Major League speed. If you choose to tag, you will be safe at 3rd base, but you will have to slide.
The next batter up hits in 7th in your lineup and he is a career .250 hitter with 10 HR’s and 60 RBI’s.
What Do the Readers Think?
In my unofficial tally, it looks like 40% of the readers think they should go “Partway” and 60% believe that they would tag up.
The Answer:
The runner on 2nd base should go “partway.”
Why? Let’s ask “Disco!”
Tom Tango doesn’t know this, but my name for him is Tom “Disco” Tango! He is someone who really has helped me put numbers to strong beliefs that I have about the game. Disco has an amazing explanation to this situation and we would benefit by reading it. So here it is from Tango aka Disco, Lichtman, and Dolphin’s site called The Book: Playing the Percentages
By Tangotiger (aka Discotiger)
Here are the possible outcomes:
a. RF catches ball, you tag up, you make it to 3B, 100% of the time
b. RF catches ball, you are somewhere between 2B and 3B, you need to get back to 2B, and will be thrown out there proportionate to how close you were to 3B
c. RF just misses getting the ball, you tag up, you make it to 3B, 100% of the time
d. RF just misses getting the ball, you round 3B, the RF throws it in, and you attempt to score proportionately to how close you were to 3B when the ball dropped in, and you will be thrown out a fixed percentage of your attempt rate (say 10%)Now, give me about 10 minutes to look into my WE charts, and I’ll give you my answer.
UPDATE:
Presuming bottom of the 4th, the chance of winning to start that plate appearance is .5832. Let’s do it:a. Tag up: Runner on 3B, 2 outs makes it .5466 win probability
b. Take a lead:
(i) Runner on 2B, 2 outs makes it .5412 win probability
(ii) DP makes it .5000c. Base hit: Runners on corners, 1 out makes it .6384 win probability
d. Base hit:
(i). You stick at 3B, so same as c. above
(ii). You try to score, the batter-runner holds at 1B, and you are:
1. Safe at home: Up by 1, runner on 1B, 1 out: .6824
2. Out at home: Runner on 1B, 2 outs: .5291
(iii). You try to score, the batter-runner goes to 2B on the throw, and you are:
1. Safe at home: Up by 1, runner on 2B, 1 out: .6983
2. Out at home: Runner on 2B, 2 outs: same as b(i) aboveOk, you need to have all those numbers in your head when you have to make your decision!
The difference between a. and b. above is so small that on a play that you think is a sure out, that it doesn’t really matter if you tag up or not. That is, being on 2B with 2 outs and being on 3B with 2 outs is almost the same thing. (That’s because the SF is now out.) So, tagging up is not really an option, not unless you are 100% sure that the RF will make the out.
Now, the tougher part: you are not sure if the RF will make the out. If you take a big enough lead, you will score easy, and your win probability is around 68% to 70%. If you take a good lead, but not big lead, you might get thrown out at home, in which case the win probability is 53% to 54%. If you play “station-to-station” ball, the win probability is 64%.
So, let’s try to work it out, presuming it’s a 50/50 play (you are not sure if the RF will make the out or not). You take a good lead (say halfway), but not big lead.
Batter is out, you make it back 45% of the time, and are doubled up 5% of the time.
Base hit, you score 40% of the time, and are thrown out 10% of the time.That’s a .595 win probability.
If you simply played station-to-station (half the time a., and half the time c.), it would have been .593.
As you can see, you have to take a lead such that you have at most a 10% chance of being doubled up on a catch, and at most a 20% chance of being thrown out at home. Sounds therefore that you should be about one-third to half-way to 3B.
That’s on a 50/50 play.
Conclusion
Many of the best base runners I have seen in the game will go partway in this situation no matter what. It was amazing watching Jeff Bagwell do this almost every time. I never remember him making a mistake on the base paths and that was because he followed this rule.
Instincts are born out of an understanding to preserve outs. In other words, by sticking to this rule, a player positions himself (or herself Lisa, Gayle, or Karen…I hear you guys!) to take advantage of a defenses misplay while still giving the offense another chance to score.
I Can’t Tell You How Proud I Am of You Guys!
What amazed me the most about your comments was that you formulated a plan. To be honest with you, I have zero problem with those of you who chose to tag because you acted on your plan and stuck to it! The vast majority of big league players have no plan when they are on the base paths. That is why base running is so bad in the Big Leagues. I myself have messed up so many times that it reminds me just how important it is to obey this rule. Great job to everyone!
I’m proud of you guys! I’m smiling right now!!!!
You’re the Base Runner at 2nd and There’s 1 Out
Posted: June 16, 2010 Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: Base Running, Uncategorized 104 Comments »So what are you going to do?
You just hit a double! That was a great piece of hitting you had right there. I didn’t think you would be able to hit a Ubaldo Jimenez fastball. The radar gun said it was 98 mph. That’s moving huh? Well get over it. It is your job and if you make the right decisions here we can go up a run. Of course, if you mess up, it could mean the difference between winning this game and going to the playoffs or losing and missing the post season by a game.
Enjoy thinking about your responses and if you feel like asking a question then go for it! It really doesn’t matter what you say because our goal is to learn. We are trying to learn about the process and not the outcome. If you feel like simply saying your opinion (notice that this is an opinion) that is good. If you want to try and explain your reasoning then I think you may get more out of this exercise.
Guys…remember to put your favorite number next to your name. You are on base and baseball players uniforms have numbers. Is your helmet on? It better be on because you are standing on second base. Look at the 3rd base coach and check the signs. Ok…nothing is “on” so it’s time to check the infielders and outfielders. Take your lead….here we go….
Scenario: You are the runner on 2nd base and there is 1 out. The score is 3 to 3 and it is the 4th inning. A fly ball is hit to right center field and the right fielder will attempt to catch the ball. As a runner you have average Major League speed. If you choose to tag, you will be safe at 3rd base, but you will have to slide.
The next batter up hits in 7th in your lineup and he is a career .250 hitter with 10 HR’s and 60 RBI’s.
What do you do and why?
Base Running with No Outs
Posted: June 9, 2010 Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: Base Running, baseball IQ, Uncategorized 31 Comments »What is my point?
With no outs a base runner should tag up on a fly ball if he is on second or third base. If he is on first base, he needs to make a decision based on the distance of the fly ball.
Why does it matter?
The goal of a base runner is to preserve outs while taking advantage of opportunities to reach the next base. These rules provide a framework helping a runner make better decisions.
Do Your Homework Before a Pitch is Thrown
Check the Defense
Base runners must identify the location of each defensive player before taking their lead. This information helps make decisions once a ball is put in play.
Step Back on a Line Drive
Line drives are the most difficult ball to read. They are the biggest cause of “doubling off” runners. “Doubled off” is when a batter flies out to a fielder and the fielded ball beats the runner back to the base the runner occupies.
Many coaches will say that a player should “Freeze” on a line drive, but that doesn’t give the runner the best opportunity to preserve outs. There are some examples where a player who freezes will be out when a player who steps back will be safe. That example is for another time.
Now that we have a general understanding, it is time to discuss the first rule. Put your helmets on!
Rule Number 1
With no outs, players should “Tag up” at second and third base if a ball is hit in the air. There are some exceptions based on the location of the fly ball and what base you occupy.
Let’s Look at Some of the Most Common Examples.
Situation 1: Runner is on first base and no one is out. Fly ball is hit in fair territory.
Base runner: The base runner should get off as far as he can and still be able to get back to first base should the ball be caught. Remember, we said that the runner should automatically tag up at second and third base, not first base.
Why? The runner should not tag up because he could be forced out if the ball drops. That is not possible on second or third base since there is no force.
Situation 2: Man on second base and no outs. Fly ball is hit anywhere on the field fair or foul.
Base runner: “Tag up” and choose to stay or advance to the next base after a catch is made.
Why? With zero outs, a runner’s priority is to preserve the out. It is better for the runner to remain at the occupied base then it is for the runner to move too far off the base and become “Doubled off.” By tagging, the runner gives his team 2 additional outs to score.
Situation 3: Man on third base with no outs. Fly ball hit at least 200 feet away. (200’ is a generic number I am using to describe a distance where the base runner can beat a throw home)
Base runner: Base runner should tag up.
Why? The likelihood is that the ball will be caught. The fielder will also be in a location where the runner can beat the throw to home plate. If the runner tags up, he will have a high probability of making it home unless he trips or slips. Even if the fielder drops the ball, the runner will still beat the throw home.
Situation 4: Man on third base. Fly ball is hit in the short outfield where either an infielder or outfielder has a chance to catch a ball.
Base runner: Since the fly ball is now close enough to throw the base runner out, the runner should no longer tag, and instead get off the base. The runner needs to be close enough to get back to third base if the ball is caught.
Why? By going part way, the runner is able to get back to third base if the ball is caught. He will also be able to score should the ball be dropped. Remember that the ball is not deep enough for the runner to tag up.
First and Third base coaches
The runner should not pay any attention to the third base coach. It is the job of the runner to make decisions. Remember that in a big league game, a player probably won’t be able to hear so the decision is on them.
Baseball IQ
I believe that a player’s understanding of baseball lies largely with how they run the bases. Speed is secondary to understanding the value of your out. Down the road we will look to see how the score of the game helps determine decisions on the base paths.
Viewers Job
It is now your turn to watch the base runners when there are no outs and a fly ball is hit. If you see a runner tag up then you know he has played correctly. If you see the runner lead off the base then you have identified a player who has made a mental mistake. Watch some games and see how you do!
